I love this chart, and the idea of this chart. Gartner, the business consultants who focus on technology, have this conceptual tool called the Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. It’s a curve that, they say, all new technologies travel on their way to (possible) success, and includes these stages:
- Innovation Trigger
- Peak of Inflated Expectations
- Trough of Disillusionment
- Slope of Enlightenment
- Plateau of Productivity
Not everything makes it through. Some ideas never catch on, others get obsolete before they make it up the Slope.
Look closely at this year’s chart. Each technology is placed on the curve, and is color-coded with how long Gartner thinks it will take to make it to Stage 5. Wearables, they say, is at the peak of the hype curve — just ahead of consumer 3D printing. They project 5 yo 10 years before this stuff goes mainstream…