In his weekly Monday Note, former top Apple exec Jean-Louis Gassée says the smartwatch market has bubbled even before it gets rolling — just like the tablet market in its earliest days:
… the vernal equinox seems to have triggered a bout of Wearables Fever the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Tablet Fever of January, 2011, when 76 tablets were announced at the Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas. As so often happens with pandemics, there was a smaller outbreak, called the Dawn of the Tablet PC, days before the January 2010 iPad launch.
He also blames most of the media for overheated coverage (The tech media? Overheated? Never…) that focuses on coolness and making epochal sweeping statements that can’t possibly stand up against the most casual examination. And, bless him, Gassée pours some cold water on market sizing, suggesting that even if they catch on (which he doubts they will simply on the basis of utility) it would be a long time before smartwatches could move the profitability needle for a company like Apple or Samsung.
Gassée is a grown-up, and knows products. When he was at Apple, he was famous for taking meetings with people with ideas for products or software. Most of those folks left the meetings encouraged, because Gassée had said, “Wow. You’re going to sell one or two of those,” not realizing that he mean it literally: it was a terrible idea and they were going to sell only one or two of them.